Atlantic Hurricane Season Update - August 30, 2025

Today’s key highlights:

  • The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has produced six named storms, one hurricane, and one major hurricane, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 39.3 units-15 percent above the 1991-2020 climatological average.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, monitoring a tropical wave forecast to emerge off Africa on Sunday with a low (< 1 percent) chance of development in the next 48 hours and 30 percent over seven days.
  • The Tropical Weather Discussion details three tropical waves in the basin today, though none show immediate development and convection remains limited.

Season Statistics as of 09 UTC August 30, 2025

Metric2025 Season1991-2020 NormalDifference
Named Storms660
Hurricanes12−1
Major Hurricanes (Category 3+)10.8+0.2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE, x10⁴ kt²)39.334.2+15 percent
Total Direct Deaths056−56
Total U.S. Damage (USD, millions)04,000−4,000

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook

At 8 AM EDT, the NHC highlighted:

  • Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off Africa on Sunday. Environmental conditions could support slow development as it moves west-northwest at ~15 mph.
    • Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent
    • Formation chance through 7 days: 30 percent

No other areas show immediate tropical cyclone formation potential.

Tropical Weather Discussion

Based on satellite imagery and surface analyses through 10 UTC:

  • Tropical Waves:
    • Eastern Atlantic wave near 80°W south of 20°N (no significant convection)
    • Central Atlantic wave along 60°W south of 17°N (scattered moderate convection south of 12°N, west of 55°W)
    • Western Caribbean wave near 84°W south of 19°N (scattered moderate to strong convection west of 82°W)
  • Monsoon Trough/ITCZ: Scattered moderate convection from 03°N-14°N east of 20°W, and 05°N-10°N between 31°W-45°W.
  • Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean: A stationary front across the northern Gulf Coast brings isolated thunderstorms; fresh to strong easterly trades maintain moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean.
  • Subtropical Atlantic: A ridge north of the basin keeps mild conditions, while a 1,029 mb high between the Azores and Nova Scotia induces fresh easterlies over the tropical Atlantic.

Outlook Through the Weekend

  • The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic will move into the central tropical Atlantic early next week with little change in development potential.
  • Trade wind and sea surface temperature patterns remain slightly favorable for tropical activity through September’s peak.
  • No active tropical cyclones are expected to form imminently; interests across the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean should continue routine monitoring of NHC updates.

Stay tuned for further advisories and updates from the National Hurricane Center.