Hurricane Lorena Threatens Baja California Peninsula

Key Point: Hurricane Lorena intensified into a Category 1 storm on Wednesday, September 3, 2025, and is forecast to track parallel to Mexico’s Baja California peninsula before approaching land late this week, bringing risks of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Location and Strength As of Wednesday morning, Lorena was situated approximately 165 km (105 miles) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) and stronger gusts. It is moving northward at about 24 km/h (15 mph).

Forecast Track Lorena is expected to continue moving northwestward, remaining offshore while paralleling the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Thursday night. Rapid intensification to near 160 km/h (100 mph) is possible tonight, though significant weakening should commence as the storm encounters cooler sea surface temperatures and increased wind shear on Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) projects Lorena to weaken back to tropical storm strength by Friday, with landfall (if it occurs) likely late Thursday into Friday on Baja California Sur; alternatively, the cyclone may dissipate offshore west of the peninsula.

Warnings and Watches

  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lázaro.
  • A Tropical Storm Watch extends northward to Punta Abreojos. Mexican authorities have urged residents in low-lying and mountainous areas to heed official advisories and prepare for heavy rainfall.

Rainfall and Flood Risk Heavy rains of 125-380 mm (5-15 inches) are expected across the southern Baja California peninsula and adjacent mainland states through Friday, with isolated amounts possibly exceeding 380 mm (15 inches). These totals raise the threat of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in higher terrain.

Secondary Impacts

  • Moisture from Lorena is forecast to spread into southwestern Arizona by late Wednesday into Friday, heightening flash-flood risk in desert washes and urban channels.
  • Interests in tourist hubs such as Los Cabos should monitor surf and coastal flooding hazards.

Outlook Lorena marks the second active hurricane in the Eastern Pacific basin this week, following Hurricane Kiko, which poses no immediate threat to land. Forecasters emphasize significant uncertainty in the storm’s exact landfall location and intensity, underscoring the need for continual updates from the NHC and local authorities.

Stay tuned for further advisories as Hurricane Lorena’s intensity and track evolve over the coming days.