Bayrou’s Government Teeters as France Faces Credit Test and Ukraine Pledge

PARIS, Sept 5 (Reuters) - French Prime Minister François Bayrou is set to lose a confidence vote on Monday, plunging the country into deeper political uncertainty while credit rating agencies prepare to weigh France’s sovereign debt.

France’s cabinet revealed its 2026 budget yesterday, proposing €44 billion in savings through pension freezes, reduced healthcare spending and the removal of two public holidays. Opposition parties, including the hard-left and National Rally, have vowed to defeat the plan, leaving Bayrou without the parliamentary backing needed to survive the vote at 1500 GMT on Sept. 8.

The looming defeat comes amid mounting market concerns: Fitch and Moody’s will review France’s AAA rating next week, with downgrades likely if the political stalemate persists and deficit targets are missed. Public debt has surged past 113% of GDP, and the 2026 budget deficit is set to exceed the EU’s 3% limit.

Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron hosted over 30 European leaders in Paris to establish a “coalition of the willing” to guarantee any future Ukrainian peace deal. Twenty-six countries pledged to form a reassurance force in Ukraine post-conflict, though troop contributions and command structures remain to be defined.

• Strikes and protests: Nationwide demonstrations called for Sept. 10 under the “Let’s Block Everything” banner, and trade unions plan a general strike on Sept. 18 to protest austerity measures.

• Next steps: If Bayrou loses the confidence vote, he will tender his resignation and remain caretaker until Macron appoints a successor. Options include a centre-left coalition or a technocrat prime minister, though snap elections remain on the table if no consensus is reached.