UnitedHealth Anticipates Majority of Members in Top-Rated Medicare Plans

UnitedHealth Group announced on September 9 that it expects roughly 78% of its Medicare Advantage members to be enrolled in plans rated four stars or higher for 2026, a forecast that sent its shares up nearly 4% in premarket trading.

The insurer’s projection underscores its continued strength in Medicare Advantage, where higher star ratings translate into increased government bonus payments and competitive positioning in the U.S. health insurance market.

Strong Medicare Advantage Performance

• UnitedHealth projects that 78% of its Medicare Advantage membership will qualify for plans with four stars or above, mirroring its historical performance and aligning with management expectations.
• High star ratings bolster reimbursement rates, potentially generating hundreds of millions to billions in bonus payments from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).

Market Reaction and Strategic Implications

UnitedHealth’s stock climbed to $332.80 in early trading, reflecting investor optimism about sustained quality performance and bonus revenue prospects. The company is set to reaffirm its 2025 adjusted earnings per share guidance of at least $16.00 at upcoming investor meetings.

Outlook and Industry Context

Medicare Advantage remains a crucial growth driver for U.S. insurers, but rising medical costs and tighter government reimbursements continue to pressure profit margins. Analysts note that final 2026 star ratings, due from CMS in October, will directly affect plan enrollment decisions and payment levels for 2027.

Senior UnitedHealth executives, including CEO Stephen Hemsley, will discuss these developments and broader strategy with analysts this week, aiming to reinforce investor confidence amid operational and regulatory challenges.