Cornyn Overtakes Paxton in Texas Senate Primary, 35% to 26%

Lead A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll released today shows Sen. John Cornyn leading Attorney General Ken Paxton in the upcoming GOP Senate primary, 35% to 26%, marking Paxton’s first sustained deficit in early November matchups.

Nut Graf The survey, conducted Sept. 4-9 among 1,000 likely Republican primary voters statewide, underscores a tightening race in Texas, where Paxton once held a comfortable advantage. With early voting looming in October and President Trump’s endorsement still up for grabs, the poll’s findings inject fresh uncertainty into a contest long viewed as Paxton’s to lose.

Primary Dynamics Shift Strong Name Recognition Cornyn’s established tenure and bipartisan appeal continue to resonate: 68% of respondents say they are “very familiar” with his record, compared with 54% for Paxton.

Trump’s Endorsement in Play Neither candidate has secured an official nod from former President Trump. Paxton’s aggressive legal battles against Big Tech and school districts have drawn national attention, but critics argue his litigation-focused agenda risks alienating moderate voters.

Fundraising and Ground Game

• Cornyn’s campaign has outraised Paxton by $4.2 million since August, bolstering mail and digital outreach efforts.
• Paxton’s field operation, while robust in Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston suburbs, lags in West Texas and South Texas counties.

Potential Wild Cards Legal Challenges: Paxton’s office faces ongoing ethics investigations at the Texas Supreme Court, which may intensify scrutiny as the campaign progresses. Debate Performance: Both candidates are slated to debate Sept. 20 in Austin; observers expect this forum to clarify contrasts on immigration enforcement and energy policy.

Outlook With early ballots already arriving in voters’ mailboxes, the race now hinges on turnout and which campaign can capitalize on momentum. Political analysts view the September poll as a wake-up call for Paxton, urging a pivot toward broader messaging to reclaim his frontrunner status.