Atlantic Tropics Largely Quiet as Remnants of Mario Fade

Lead: On Sept. 13, 2025, the remnants of Tropical Storm Mario dissipated over the eastern Pacific while a tropical wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands drew a medium development threat from the National Hurricane Center.

Nut Graf: At the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the basin remains unusually dormant, sharpening focus on nascent disturbances and underscoring the season’s inherent volatility.

Mario’s Remnants Dissipate

At 0600 UTC, the National Hurricane Center declared the remnant low of Mario dissipated near 18.3° N, 105.3° W, ending all advisories on the system. Former tropical-storm-force winds of 25 kt weakened amid increasing wind shear and dry air, prompting forecasters to issue no further updates.

African Wave Eyes Development

A tropical wave drifting westward south of the Cabo Verde Islands holds a 40 percent chance of organizing into at least a depression by next week, according to NHC forecaster Bryan Norcross. Saharan dust and hostile mid-level dryness are currently inhibiting convection, but model consensus indicates more favorable conditions around mid-week, with some scenarios projecting eventual tropical-storm strength under the name Gabrielle.

Seasonal Outlook Maintains Caution

Despite sea‐surface temperatures above average in the Main Development Region, the Atlantic has seen only six named storms and a single hurricane (Erin) as of mid-September, two storms shy of climatology. Forecasters warn that this “false calm” often precedes late-season surges, urging mariners and coastal communities to remain vigilant through November.