Atlantic Hurricane Basin Remains Unusually Quiet as NHC Monitors African Tropical Wave

Lead The Atlantic hurricane basin stayed unusually calm on September 13, 2025, with no active storms reported while the National Hurricane Center flagged a tropical wave off Africa for potential development next week.

Nut Graf Despite climatological peak season, hostile Saharan dust, stable air and wind shear have suppressed storm formation. The evolving disturbance south of the Cabo Verde Islands now carries a 50 percent chance to become a depression by mid-week, underscoring heightened vigilance as conditions gradually improve.

Tropical Wave Monitored

• The wave’s axis lies near 24° W, moving west at 10-15 kt.
• Limited convection persists between 13° N-16° N, with dry air inhibiting organization.
• NHC elevates development odds to medium over the next seven days, forecasting possible depression formation by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Atmospheric Conditions Limit Development

• Saharan dust has reduced moisture by up to 50 percent, stifling thunderstorm growth.
• Descending air and moderate wind shear further hinder consolidation.
• Warm sea-surface temperatures remain favorable, but deeper atmospheric factors dominate current suppression.

Forecast Outlook

• Should the wave survive drier air, forecast models diverge on its track; most keep it north of the Caribbean, though some project a near-island approach by next weekend.
• Meteorologists caution that rapid intensification is possible if environmental constraints ease.
• Long-range forecasts will hinge on the system’s early development speed and shifting steering currents.

Subheads

• Monitoring the Main Development Region
• Saharan Dust and Shear Effects
• Potential Impacts and Preparedness

Readers in the Lesser Antilles and U.S. East Coast should remain alert for updates as the wave’s evolution could prompt watches or warnings later this week.