NOAA Reaffirms Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Amid Quiet Basin

Lead NOAA on Monday maintained its forecast for an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season-projecting 13-18 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes-despite a lull in activity to date.

Nut Graf As the season passes its climatological peak on Sept. 10, forecasters stress that warm tropical Atlantic waters and neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions continue to favor elevated storm formation through November, underscoring the need for preparedness even as only six named storms have formed so far.

Atlantic Activity So Far

• Six named storms, including one hurricane and one major hurricane, have developed through Sept. 15-below the 1991-2020 averages of 14.4 named storms and 7.2 hurricanes.
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) stands at 39.3 (-44% of average), reflecting the season’s slower start.
• No direct deaths or U.S. damages have been reported to date.

Forecast Drivers

• Sea surface temperatures across the main development region remain above average, providing ample energy for tropical cyclones.
• ENSO-neutral conditions persist, reducing wind shear compared with El Niño years and promoting storm organization.

Emerging Disturbance The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Invest 92L-an African tropical wave with disorganized convection-for potential development into Tropical Storm Gabrielle later this week. It holds an 80% chance of cyclogenesis over seven days as it moves west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.

Preparation Reminder “NOAA stands ready to provide the forecasts and warnings vital for safeguarding lives and communities,” Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said, urging early preparation rather than waiting for watches or warnings.

Subhead: Peak Season Outlook and Ongoing Monitoring With the hurricane season running through Nov. 30, residents along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts should maintain vigilance as environmental conditions become increasingly favorable for storms into autumn.