Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forms in Central Atlantic, Unlikely U.S. Threat

Lead: Tropical Depression Seven intensified into Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wednesday afternoon roughly 1,185 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, with sustained winds of 35 mph and westward movement at 13 mph, and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by the weekend.

Nut Graf: Gabrielle’s emergence ends an atypical three-week lull in Atlantic activity during peak hurricane season, underscoring the shift toward a busier late-September period. While the system poses no significant risk to the U.S. mainland, mariners and Bermuda residents should monitor its trajectory as it veers northward over open waters.

Development and Forecast

  • Tropical Depression Seven, designated Invest 92L, organized early Wednesday and met criteria for tropical storm status by mid-afternoon, becoming the seventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
  • Intensity Outlook: The National Hurricane Center projects gradual strengthening under lower wind shear and warmer sea surface temperatures this weekend, with potential escalation to Category 1 hurricane strength by Sunday.
  • Track Projection: Steering currents from a subtropical ridge to the north are expected to guide Gabrielle west-northwestward before a mid-latitude trough turns it northeast into the open Atlantic.

Impacts and Warnings

  • Caribbean Islands: Outer bands may generate elevated surf and hazardous rip currents across the Leeward Islands; however, significant rainfall or wind impacts are unlikely as the core tracks well to the north.
  • Bermuda: While landfall is improbable, Bermuda should remain alert for increase in swell and coastal currents early next week as Gabrielle passes nearby.
  • United States: Current forecasts indicate no direct threat to the U.S. East Coast.

Broader Season Context

After a three-week interval without named storms-the first such pause since 1992-Gabrielle’s formation signals the onset of what meteorologists anticipate will be an active late-season phase, typical between mid-September and mid-October when ocean heat content peaks and atmospheric conditions favor tropical development.