Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast to Intensify, Pass East of Bermuda

Lead: Tropical Storm Gabrielle is churning in the central Atlantic with 50 mph winds and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday as it tracks west-northwest, passing east of Bermuda by Monday.

Nut Graf: Gabrielle, the seventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, poses no immediate land threat but will generate hazardous swells and rip currents in Bermuda. Forecasters emphasize the importance of early preparedness as the storm gains strength.

Current Status and Forecast Track

  • As of 11 a.m. EDT Sept. 19, Gabrielle is centered roughly 945 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving west-northwest at 12 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph.
  • Gradual strengthening is expected, with hurricane status likely by Sunday, Sept. 21.
  • The National Hurricane Center projects the storm to curve northwest by Friday night and north-northwest by Saturday, steering it east of Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.

Potential Hazards for Bermuda

  • Dangerous Surf and Rip Currents: Swells generated by Gabrielle will reach Bermuda Friday night and build through the weekend, posing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
  • Marine Impacts: Small craft advisories may be issued as wave heights increase.
  • Coastal Flooding: Elevated tides and storm surge risk, though impacts are expected to remain moderate given the storm’s offshore track.

Forecast Confidence and Model Guidance

  • Forecast cone represents the probable path of Gabrielle’s center, but tropical-storm-force winds and swells can extend well beyond the cone’s boundaries.
  • Forecasters rely on top-performing forecast models, narrowing guidance to four or five consensus tracks to improve accuracy.

Broader Tropical Outlook

  • A tropical wave off Africa has a 20 percent chance of development over the next seven days as it moves west-northwestward across the central Atlantic.
  • In the eastern Pacific, two systems-Invest 96L south-southwest of Baja California and a broad area of showers off Mexico’s southern coast-are being monitored for potential tropical depression formation this week.

Preparedness Recommendations

  • Monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and Bermuda Weather Service.
  • Secure loose outdoor items and review personal hurricane plans.
  • Ensure emergency supplies are stocked, including nonperishable food, water, and medical essentials.

Stay tuned for further advisories as Gabrielle evolves through the weekend.